EXEC SUMMARY: This book systematically and logically diagnoses the process of why we fail. dörner begins in the Introduction by providing snippets of computer situations and how two individuals fail to resolve problems. He then continues by presenting psychological reasons in blunt terms why they failed. He establishes the path to failure in rather stark and almost fatalistic terms. It is as if we are all doomed to fail, unless we heed the correct procedure to problem solving, which is the subject of his book. CHAPTER ONE provides three examples, two computer generated and one very real, that detail the process of failure step by step. Each of the three vivid examples lets dörner probe the path to failure through storytelling and detailed accounts of the events which led to utter failure. Each scenario concludes with blunt assessments of why the participants failed. CHAPTER TWO establishes the nomenclature of why systems fail. He uses the three failures of the previous chapter as his source for examples and proceeds to analyze the process of failure step by step. First all problems are complex, that is that they have many features that are interrelated. Second they are dynamic in that they develop a life of their own. Thirdly we can't always see everything because something just might not be visible. Lastly our ignorance and mistaken hypotheses lead us to failure. The steps in planning and action are presented: define goals, develop a model and gather info, prediction and extrapolation, planning of actions, and review of effects of actions and revision. Each of these steps will be the substance of each of the subsequent chapters in the book. CHAPTER THREE Setting Goals is a complex process. We must set useful goals. We must understand interrelationships, be clear, avoid "repair behavior", be conscious of contradictions in our goals, and above all know our own limitations. CHAPTER FOUR Information and Models: speaks of gathering info and analyzing it to make decisions. One situation is not to be treated like another. One success can't be transferred to another. Constant feedback is crucial. Understanding interrelationships is very important. CHAPTER FIVE Time Sequences outlines the effect time has on systems. Time is the 4th dimension and many aspects of temporal sequences are key to effective systems management. Oscillation, sudden reversals, exponential growth, events in time are not isolated but are related. Timing, patience, time delay, and constant tinkering are key to systems management. CHAPTER SIX is about planning which involves: condition element, action element, and a result element. CHAPTER SEVEN should be reread.
THE REPORT:
Intro:
ONE: Some Examples
The Lamentable Fate of Tanaland: a simulation. 12
participants had dictatorial power over area to promote its well-
being over a ten year period. They had total power, no
opposition, to determine hunting, farming, etc etc. They had six
opportunities to gather, plan and decide. Old problems repeated
themselves, new solutions brought new unforeseen problems.
Catastrophe inevitable: linear.
The Not-Quite-So-Lamentable Fate of Greenvale: Another
computer simulation involves a small town of 3700 people whose
main employer is a watch factory. In this scenario, the
participant was mayor with a ten year term, dictatorial powers
and the watch factory was part of the municipality. This study
observes two participants, Mark and Charles. Charles was a
"good" mayor and Mark was a "bad" one. Why?
"Chernobyl in Tanaland": I leave this one to the notes that were passed out.
CHAPTER TWO: "The Demands": here we get the criteria by
which we set out to solve problems. From the three situations we
find much in common. All are complex with interrelated
variables. Intransparency exists, that is we can't see
everything. They all are dynamic, they have their own energy.
Individuals usually don't understand the systems.
Now that the characteristics are established we will consider
guidelines.
Defining Goals Chapter 3: This is the first
step in dealing with a complex problem. This is not obvious at
first. This is a constant process of redefining goals as we
proceed.
Formulation of models & gathering info Chapter
4: Obviously gathering info is crucial but time will make it
easier said than done. How much is enough? We need to arrange
it in a picture to show complexity.
Prediction and extrapolation Chapter 5:
Assessing the info and the model to determine effectiveness in
achieving goal.
Planning actions, decision making, and executing actions Chapter 6: It is time to act. Acting in a
reasonable manner is difficult. "Methodism" is a tendency that
can impose a crippling conservatism on our activity. Rashness is
the opposite. Balance is key. Decisions follow planning and
actions follow decisions, and assessment is most important.
Replan, rethink, redo. Don't get stuck in the rut. Be prepared
to call a failure a failure and fix it. Finding the middle path
is hard between sticking to a doomed plan and giving up is not
easy. See page 43 for the diagram.
Review of effects and revise Chapter 7:
CHAPTER THREE: Setting Goals.
CHAPTER FOUR - Information and Models
We must go beyond just causal relationships but to abstract
relations as well. We should know the hierarchy as well. Think
in analogies. Explore the unknown via the known. To deal
effectively with a system we need to know: 1. how the causal
relationships among the variables work; 2. how components fit
into a hierarchy; 3. need to know the component parts and into
which variables those parts are embedded.
Acquiring knowledge of a system can be achieved by analogy.
As our knowledge of a system grows and we make changes we need to
gather further info to assess the effect of the changes.
CHAPTER FIVE Time Sequences
CHAPTER SIX Planning
Narrowing problem sectors gives us manageable problems. Trial
and error is good if possible. Cull unsuccessful strategies to
see if they may work or may work if modified. This keeps us from
being entrenched in same old same old. An important method is
"thinking by analogy." One jumps into the fray and then figures
out what to do next or sink or swim. In complex and ever
changing situations delegate, meet often, and allow independence.
Plans can be too crude or too detailed. The trick is finding the
balance.
Methodism is the system of using the same method of one success
on another problem. Macros. Problem is if something changes
methodists falter because they are tracked.
Bad problem solvers used: constantly, every time, all, without
exception, absolutely, entirely, ... while good problem
solvers used: now an then, in general, sometimes, ordinarily,
often, a bit, somewhat, among other things, .... Good
problem solvers analyze and try to find reasons, bad are dogmatic
and assert.
CHAPTER SEVEN So Now What Do We Do?
Return to Introduction
In Greenvale, the promotion of tourism was successful once and
was repeated over and over again only to be failures. Why?
In a complex situation with many interlocking elements, effective
measures in one situation may not work again in the same or
similar situations. Every situation has to be considered afresh.
The fire game is spoken about. A chief must dispatch his 12
brigades appropriately to fight fires. pp 95-7. Strategy is a
series of makeshifts, bringing knowledge to bear on practical
life. It is the art of acting under the pressure of the most
demanding conditions. We must keep track of changes and adapt
which runs contrary to generalizations. Before we apply an
abstract concept to a concrete situation, we should sub,it to
"strategic" scrutiny to see if it is appropriate.
Return to Introduction
Interesting how time worked in the following scenario: A got mad
at B. C, B's friend attacked A rather rudely. C lost face etc
with larger group and later in meeting did not get support needed
by group. Did A set up C early for a later battle knowing C
overreacted often? Did A exercise old adage: "Make your opponent
mad; then maybe he'll make a mistake."
Spatial patterns like parking lots are easy to see incompleteness
and as easy to complete based on symmetry (asymmetry),
repetition, etc. But in time configs we tend to treat temporal
development as individual events. They are not, they are
interlocked. Building of schools is an example.
We rely on a few mechanisms of prognostication to gain insight
into the future: extrapolation from the moment is that
aspect of the present, anger, worry, or delight which play a key
role in our predicting for the future. 2 factors then come
together in extrapolations from the moment: 1. limited focus on
notable feature of present and 2. extension into future is based
on present knowledge. Fixation on now affects new. Too much
significance on now. Thus how do people form their ideas of the
future?
In 1985, an author reported 262 cases of AIDS in Germany. In
mid-August there had been 230 cases. Of those 109 died. The
author concluded this was a small number compared to cancer and
all else which kill mankind. Author was like king in grain of
rice story, condescending to numbers and exponential growth.
Rate of growth is a %. In this case it was 130%. So 262 becomes
16,863 in 5 yrs, 1,085,374 in 10 yrs and that is Germany. (using
compound-interest formula). Three different predictions
followed. One way under another way over and the third with the
facts said no worry when it proved a 183% annual growth. page
116. Clearly real world assessment did not provide writers and
readers with the ability to predict correctly. What is the
rate of growth over TIME?
Return to Introduction
If we want to deal with a complex problem, first we define our
goals. Then we make a model. Then we plan
Return to Introduction
sums it all up. People fail because they fail to formulate their
goals, don't recognize contradictory goals, to set clear
priorities, badly mishandle temporal developments, and fail to
correct their errors. The first reason for failure is the
slowness of human thinking. Our slowness obliges us to take
shortcuts and prompts us to see our scarce resources to save time
and effort. Instead of clarifying interrelationships and
variables, we select one variable as central. Gather info and
save time later. Set rules, deal with temporal configs. A
second reason for inadequacies lies in the realm of cognitive
processes. We as self-protecting and won't take chances.
Methodism is a factor here. Also we only solve problems we can
and forget about those we can't. A third reason is a difficulty
with dealing with time. We have a limited amount of info we can
take in at a time, although we can store large amounts. A fourth
reason is that we don't think about problems we don't have. In
short we are captives of the moment. "Operative intelligence" is
knowledge we have from experience. The key to solving problems
is thinking about our own thinking. One way to solve problems is
through simulations. Review 197-8.
Return to Introduction